(click on graph to enlarge)Greetings all,
I have attached the first of what is to be a quarterly status report of real estate in South Tampa. It is designed to give you an insight to the general trends of different types of properties (houses, townhomes, and condos) in the nine general South Tampa neighborhoods.
The analysis compares activity and pricing between this past quarter (Q3: July 1 – September 30) with the past quarter (Q2: April 1 – June 30), and Q3 from 2008.
This is a GENERAL analysis of trends of your property in your area and where the market is going and what properties are selling per square foot. Remember that other factors such as: age of home, location within a neighborhood, if it is on the water, etc. could impact the value of your home greatly and that this is to primarily evaluate TRENDS. For a pinpoint analysis of your property, feel free to call me.
Nevertheless, many of you may be curious just to see where your property lies in the mix!
Looking past the numbers, here are a few points of what we can discern:
Overall sales of ALL types of properties (houses, townhomes, and condos) is down in most neighborhoods but the rate of decrease is slowing. With the government stimulus plan for first time homebuyers ($8k tax credit), the faster processing of short sales by lenders, and favorable interest rates are all playing a role in getting properties sold quicker. However there is still three times more inventory today (1,410 listings) than there was in 2006 (550 average). My best analogy of this is the equivalent of trying to turn an aircraft carrier. We are moving in the right direction, but it will take time to get inventory absorbed.
Pricing per square foot for HOUSES has flattened in most neighborhoods. This is especially good news for many of us that has seen our prices fall 20% - 30% in the past 12-18 months. It is natural that pricing of South Tampa will recover quicker than other parts of Tampa Bay because it is generally a higher demanded area. It will take another 2-3 quarters of this consistency though until we know for sure that we have turned the corner. Also, approx. 150 of the 740 houses listed are short sales or bank owned (20%)
Price per square foot for TOWNHOMES is down, but the rate of decline is slowing. The townhome will naturally take longer to recover than houses for two primary reasons: 1) The value of the land is the primary driving force for values (there is more land sitting under houses and townhomes; and 2) There is an abundance of townhomes in the higher concentration areas of Soho, along MacDill South of Gandy, and other areas where there is a concentration of multifamily living. Also, approx. 60 out of the 250 townhomes for sale are short sales and bank owned/REO’s (24%).
Pricing per square foot for CONDOS is still dropping, and the rate of decline has remains unchanged. All indications point that condos are going to continue to struggle for some time. Between the multitude of condo conversions where most buyers were investors caught in the craze, or seemingly endless supply of condos available in Channelside (see actual numbers below), it will take some time for the condo market to stabilize. What also hurts is that lenders will not issue conventional loans on condos without a 20% down payment, and FHA now requires full approval of the community of which only one out of every five seem to qualify. Buyers with the cash will greatly benefit from this in the end. Currently, 143 of the 411condos for sale are short sales and bank owed (34%). These are strictly in South Tampa and does NOT include downtown/Channelside.
Here is what remains unsold in Channelside according to public records as of 10/15/2009:
Towers of Channelside – 141 of 258
The Place – 186 of 259
Ventana – 47 of 91
Grand Central – 213 of 418 (but most are rented)
Slade – unknown out of 300 units
Skypoint – 41 of 386 (good!)
The Element – all rentals of 386
The great news is that properties in South Tampa are more affordable then ever and there are some excellent deals to be had. With favorable interest rates, $8k government tax credit, and banks more willing to negotiate on short sales and bank owned properties, it is a great time to buy! I hope you find this analysis helpful and please keep me in mind for your real estate needs.
